By Jess Kirley
I often become bewildered when I hear
of people bragging, because they have high strike rates and/or high profit-on-turnover
figures (POT). You know the 'my strike rate on the Soccer is 73%' or 'my
POT on the gallops is 90%'.
Yes, OK, congratulations. Give yourself
a pat on the back; you are making money. Well, actually, if your strike
rate on the Soccer was 73%, this certainly does not guarantee that you
are showing a profit. After all, the goal is to back plenty of winners,
isn't it? Well, yes and no.
Is the goal to simply make money,
or is it to make as much money as we can, given our current resources (time,
starting bank, knowledge, etc.)? I realize that it sounds like I am being
a little greedy, but come on, admit it, we all want great, big, fat, consistent
profits from our betting, don't we?
I truly believe, that many punters
think, that this punting game is a competition, where plaques, certificates
and smiley faces are awarded to those with the best win strike rates and
profit on turnover figures.
Yes, before you wipe your writing
pad out to type me a letter of disgust at my arrogance, I admit that I
am being a little hard-lined on this one.
I mean, really, WHO CARES if you
have a POT of 30%, 60% or even more?
WHO CARES how many winning teams
you backed, or how many horses you backed, which were first past the post?
It seems to me, that many punters
seem to turn a blind eye to one and only real measure of how well you performed
. . .
How Much Money Did You Make?
Maybe I am the odd one out, but every
time I hear somebody spruiking, that they make an excessive POT of say
20% or more, the first thought that pops into my head is certainly not,
'Gee, that bloke really must know what he is doing, what a legend!', but
more along the lines of;
How Much Money COULD He Have Made?
If you achieve high POT figures,
you are telling me three things:
1. You have had, maybe, a couple
of dozen bets at most,
2. You are way too selective with
your selections, but most importantly,
3. You are not making as much money
as you could be.
Whenever I try to explain this to
a punter down at the pub, they think I am totally insane.
"What Do You Bloody Mean That I Could
Be Doing Better? You Tell Me How Many Other Punters Can Achieve 90% POT?"
Generally, that is what I hear, when
I open my mouth about this subject. Look, missing a good bet is as bad
as making a bad bet. There is little excuse for either. We all do both,
but hopefully we don't make that same mistakes twice.
For those who disagree, I ask the
following:
Tell me why I should turn my back
on a positive expectation bet, regardless of the return? Maybe I should
not make the bet, because I may damage my strike rate, or may lower my
POT, and as a result, won't sound as good when I brag to my mates. RUBBISH!
There is no such thing as the gambling Olympics; you are not going to get
an award for having the best POT figures or strike rates. I shall repeat
this once more.
The Aim Of The Game Is To MAKE MONEY.
If you are achieving an average return
on each bet of more than 20% or 30%, I believe you need to rework your
approach, and do a little work to get that POT back down a little by making
the smaller positive expectation bets. Yes, bring your POT down! How many
good bets do you think you are missing, if you wait all year, and make
only 12 bets, but you have 80% POT? You are making money on those 12 bets
only. OK, fair enough, you may make those bets quite large in relation
to your bankroll, but bear in mind, you may be able to make two, three,
ten or even more times the amount you are making now by taking those smaller
edges.
The article . . .'The difference
between your edge and your expectation'at www.puntingace.com follows on
from this concept. Reading this one article may make $1,000's of dollars
of difference to your bottom line over the course of a year.
Remember, it is not how many winners
you back, but how much money you make. Leave the bragging and high turnover
figures to the 'heroes'.
Australians Matt Elliott and Jess
Kirley of http://www.puntingace.com
, have been investing together professionally on sports for over 3 years
now. They take a very mathematical approach to their betting, and liken
it more trading a commosity like stocks than actual gambling. They continue
to lead the industry with innovative approaches to sports betting and their
reputation among their peers is a testinmony to that. Visit http://www.puntingace.com
to discover how you too can turn your hobby of betting into a profitable
endeavour.
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