By Jess Kirley
Quit as soon as you are in front for
the day?
Set a stop loss and quit betting
for the day if you reach that point?
Set a profit target and quit as soon
as you reach that goal?
If your first few bets lose, then
you should quit because you luck isn't with you today?
If you win your first few bets then
you should quit because you have already used your luck for the day and
from now on you must have bad luck? Sound familiar? I am sure you have
heard them all before. Self confessed gambling experts usually will advocate
one of the above, or a slight variation of one of the above. They say that
this one decision is just as important as the game they are playing or
the skills they possess in the game.
Which is correct? Well, if you are
a serious long-term player, there is only one answer (well, to be honest,
maybe two).
Quit Betting For the Day if You No
Longer Have an Edge.
I want you to read this one line,
out loud 10 times, as it is that important.
This is the only reason you should
stop betting (providing of course, that you hold an edge). I am not plucking
this idea off the top of my head. No, this is a mathematically proven fact!
I don't care how much money you have either won, or lost, on any particular
day. If you have good bankroll management and your judgment is not affected
by a winning or losing run (which it shouldn't be, once you become experienced),
then I would suggest that you continue to bet. It is that simple. You should
not view your betting as separate sessions where you calculate your profit
or loss. No . . .
You must view your gambling as one
continuous session, which NEVER ends.
This is the reason it would make
no sense to quit just because you are ahead or behind. This is reality.
As long as you have an edge, tell me why would you stop betting? OK, we
all have to sleep, eat and live our lives. I believe this is the only other
reason as to why you would consider calling it quits for the day. Also,
if you are mentally fatigued, it doesn't make good business sense to continue
your betting either.
In saying this, I certainly can understand
how punters perceptions may lead them into false beliefs. After all, how
many times have you been a few hundred in front at the TAB, casino or track,
only to leave with your tail between your legs and twenty cents in your
pocket? On the way home you think to yourself, 'I knew I should have stopped
when I was ahead'. How did you know? Keep in mind I am assuming that you
hold a long-term edge on your game of choice.
If you don't hold an edge, then yes,
you should quit while you are ahead, or to go one step further, you should
be playing with small stakes for a bit of fun only.
However, providing you hold an edge
on the game, are still mentally alert, have not become emotional (become
over confident or are reeling from a loss), and would like to make some
money, then you should continue to play your game regardless of recent
results.
Providing you continue to make positive
expectation bets, tell me why you would stop, if you lost a couple of bets
in a row, or if you struck a winner with your first bet? (I am assuming
you have established a betting bank that you can afford to lose.)
The only benefit I can see in stopping,
when you have either won or lost a certain amount, would be to boost your
confidence. To stop betting for the day, when you are showing a profit,
may help to boost your confidence. In reality, you are reducing the amount
that you will make in the long-term (because your turnover is not as great),
but maybe your confidence and enjoyment derived from gambling may rise.
In this case, stopping after a couple of good wins may be the way to go
for you personally.
If you don't have an edge, and you
are serious about making money from gambling, you should develop your gambling
skills so as you can create an edge. Find out more about your 'Edge' int
he article, 'The Difference Between Your Edge and Your Expectation' at
http://www.puntingace.com/hints/
However, if you are gambling purely
for the enjoyment, then setting stop losses, either at a winning point
or losing point, is the best way to play. This way, by reducing turnover,
and thus not losing as much in the long-term, is smart play.
Australians Matt Elliott & Jess
Kirley of http://www.puntingace.com
, have been investing together professionally on sports for over 3 years
now. They take a very mathematical approach to their betting, and liken
it more trading a commosity like stocks than actual gambling. They continue
to lead the industry with innovative approaches to sports betting and their
reputation among their peers is a testinmony to that. Visit http://www.puntingace.com
to discover how you too can turn your hobby of betting into a profitable
endeavour.
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